I am not talking about the stock dropping from its recent
high. The stock will probably drop
further as it simply is overpriced, over hyped, and over promoted as being
green. But who knows the stock has
defied gravity and logic before so it could go back up.
A friend of mine who is a MD (Dr. P.) in Southern California
bought a Model S with the 85 kwh battery pack and the unlimited mileage
warranty on the battery pack. Dr P.
lives 50 miles away from his medical office and has a terrible commute if he
cannot use the High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lane. Dr. P. uses his car to travel 25,000 to
30,000 a year.
He was told he was being mighty green buying the Model S and
was told he is achieving 89 MPG equivalent.
Dr. P contacted the Green Machine to establish his real MPGs and his
real level of greenness. Dr. P. gave
me the following information from his data logger that he is averaging 0.343
kwh per mile (battery energy to the wheels).
He is using grid supplied electricity to charge his car and the losses
from the power generation station to Direct Current to the terminals of his
battery pack are estimated at 15%. Therefore
Dr. P. uses 0.404 kwh of generated power per mile.
The US DOE has published emissions for the electric grid in
California and this is 0.658 pounds of CO2 per kwh of power generated. The batteries were made in Japan and post
Fukashima the average grid emissions for Japan are 1.438 pounds of CO2 per kwh. The average emissions for the US grid are
approximately 1.3 pounds of CO2 per kwh.
It is interesting that power generated in California has less than half
the CO2 emissions than power generated in Japan post Fukashima and the closure
of all nuclear power stations in that country.
As explained previously I have developed a model for estimating
the MPG equivalent compared against gasoline by amortizing the primary energy
used to manufacture the batteries plus adding the charging energy to keep car
moving. Dr. P. drives much more than the
average Model S owner and will hopefully get 175,000 miles out of his battery
pack. On this basis and the equivalent
MPG that Dr. P. will likely experience owning his Model S is modeled at 42
MPG. This is pretty green as Dr. P
traded in his Lexus with 175,000 miles that only achieved 21 MPG. Unfortunately the 42 MPG is not the 89 MPG
he was sold by Tesla. The real culprit
is the US EPA that provides fake numbers to help promote the chosen green
policy de jour of the administration.
Using the Japanese and average US grid data, a US motorist
who only travels 80,000 miles over 10 years in the Model S will experience a
real equivalent mileage of only 19.73 MPG.
The average US motorist wishing to be greener should have bought a diesel
Porsche Panamera rather than a Tesla Model S.
Dr. P. has the unique advantage of driving his Tesla hard (over 25,000
miles a year) and then recharging with greener electrons from the California
grid.
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