Thursday, June 13, 2013

Secretary Of Energy Corrupted In One Month



                                                                 E-XTREME                               



Update  The comparison between e-gallons and gasoline is actually even more stark.  The gasoline car with 15 gallons and 28.2 mpg has a range of 423 miles. To get 423 miles at 0.35 kwh per mile one needs a battery pack of 148.1 kwh.

Performing the requisite math of how much the EV would cost with 148.1 kwh without government subsidy and with profits to the battery and auto company, the added real cost is just north of $150,000. Amortizing this over 80,000 miles the e-gallon cost is just over $54 a gallon.

With gasoline at $3.60 a gallon the e-gallon is 15 times as expensive a gasoline if we are going for the same range. The DOE opened this Pandora's box by making the comparison to gasoline. I am just demonstrating on a real apples to apples basis how pathetic EVs are and they are on life support from a totally misguided government policy brought to us by lost souls.

Come on Dr. Moniz you understand thermo let's clean up the mess at the department of entropy and put some order to the chaos and craziness there. 




Only one month on the job and the new Energy Secretary is already corrupted by his boss and Washington politics.  Continuing the fake out of his predecessor Dr. Chu at the Department of Energy, Dr. Moniz now claims it only cost $1.22 for an e-gallon of electric power for an electric vehicle.

His department of “entropy” calculates the e-gallon by taking an average the 0.35 kilowatt hours per mile for the 5 top E vehicles, then multiplying by the gasoline car mileage average of 28.2 MPG, and then again multiplying the average cost to a household of electricity of 12.33 cents per kilowatt hour.  Viola an e-gallon is estimated by the DOE to cost $1.22.


Now the Green Machine will do the reality-check on this assumption.

The average gasoline car has a gasoline tank that holds 15 gallons and gets 28.2 MPG to equal a range of 423 miles.  This car has a fuel tank that costs the motorist approximately $150 of the total price of the car.  The motorist will drive 150,000 miles over all the years of owning their gas car and the cost to amortize the tank is therefore 1/10 of cent per mile ($150 divide 150,000 miles).  Each gallon of gasoline gives the car 28.2 miles of range, thus the amortized cost of the gas tank is 2.8 cents per gallon (0.1 cents per mile times 28.2 miles per gallon). Adding this to the $3.60 price at the pump for a gallon of gas and we have a total cost of $3.63 per gallon for the fuel and the amortization of the on board storage of the fuel.

No EV (electric vehicle) on God’s Green Earth has a range of 420 miles but the Tesla Model S has a range under real driving conditions of perhaps 230 miles with the 85 kwh battery pack.  Dr. Chu reported last August that the cost to produce an EV battery pack is $650 per kilowatt hour. 

Without the massive government grants, the real price for the battery pack is this $650 cost plus the margin to the battery producer plus the margin to the auto company.  This means the real price should be $1,000 per kilowatt hour.  Without  government subsidy, the Model S should have a “real” price for the batteries alone of $85,000.  Let’s assume the motorist with a Tesla Model S does drives 80,000 miles in ten years.  The cost to amortize the batteries is then $1.06 per mile ($85,000 divide 80,000 miles).  The gasoline autos achieve a fuel economy of 28.2 MPG.  Multiply 28.2 MPG by $1.06 and we yield $29.89 per gallon equivalent for the real cost of ownership of the batteries.  Add the $1.22 to the $29.89 and Dr. Moniz should report the thermodynamic truth of $31.11 as the actual e-gallon cost.


Dr. Moniz claimed an e-gallon costs one third of a gasoline gallon.  In fact it costs almost nine times as much for electricity versus gasoline.  Mr. Secretary, it looks like you have fuzzy math where 3 squared equals 3 to the minus 1.  Shame on you Dr. Moniz!   I had high hopes for you but within a month your boss and Washington DC corrupted you by a factor of 3 cubed.

6 comments:

  1. It's not about the cost anymore.
    Oil is running out, and a decade from now you might find yourself in a situation where all the money in the world won't be enough to fill up your gas tank.
    In combination with renewable energy, electric car is just a logical step in transportation technology.
    Unless you're a die hard Flintstones fan.

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