There was lots of Hoopla and Excitement this week about the
reveal of the Tesla Model 3. The Green
Machine’s opinion is that this is one wonderfully engineered car. No
doubt that this car sets the standard for what can be done with a vehicle
powered by lithium ion batteries.
Tesla revealed that over 190,000 people had made their
$1,000 reservation for the car at an average price of $42,000 each. Sadly for many of these folks they won’t be
getting the $7,500 tax credit unless the Feds change the law. The law as presently written is that only the
first 200,000 electric vehicles of any one manufacturer qualify for the $7,500
credit. I am sure that Elon must have
his lobbyists working on changing the law.
The car has an EPA range of approximately 200 miles. The frame and body of the Model 3 are made of
steel not aluminum like the Model S.
This was done to lower cost but adds to the mass of the car. My guess is the car will weigh around 4,500
pounds and will have 55 to 60 kilowatt hours of batteries. These specifications have not been revealed.
In 2013 Dr. Chu who was Secretary of Energy wrote a paper
that the cost of lithium ion battery packs including all controls and thermal
management was approximately $650 per kwh.
Folks are claiming the Model S battery pack will cost Tesla only $100
per kwh when the car starts selling in late 2017. My educated guess is that the cost of the
battery pack at the end of 2017 will still be $350 to $400 per kwh and that
each pack will cost around $20,000 to $24,000.
This leaves approximately $18,000 to $22,000 for the rest of the
vehicle.
You all may ask why I do not believe the $100 per kwh is
possible? This is because the cost of
raw materials for the batteries will experience price increases. Cobalt, lithium, graphite, copper, etc. will
see inflation. What will be very likely
is that he Model 3 will be the last car that folks ever buy. The batteries might well last 5,000 cycles
for a lifetime of a million miles. I
actually think this is the real selling point of the car. A car that lasts a lifetime!
The styling of the car is superb and Tesla has established
their brand as the highest quality most sought out vehicle. No other brand of vehicles comes close to
Tesla for customer appeal and satisfaction.
I still think that the Toyota Prius should outsell the Model 3. Time will tell how successful the Model 3
becomes and how much profit Tesla makes.
I have to hand it to the team at
Tesla they sure know how to create excitement.
Good comments.
ReplyDeleteFeO2
I had thought that the high cost of the battery would sink Tesla, but I might be wrong because of the efficiencies of the large battery factory. I hope this is true as we really will benefit from a reasonably priced electric car.
ReplyDeleteProf FeO2 and Prof Paul Good you commented. The batteries are expensive but the cost of driving each mile may be affordable if the batteries can cycle 3,000 to 5,000 times and the cars last a lifetime. Amortizing the cost over 30 years like a home may become the norm in car ownership. The opposite of built in obsolescence. Built Out Non-obsolescence could become the car industry norm. Exciting
ReplyDeleteHmm, have you ever lived in the Northeast? The put salt on the roads in winter. Salt water + steel = not 30 yrs life.
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