Saturday, September 19, 2015

Growth in Coal Use In China Slowing



The US EIA issued a very interesting report on the slowing in the growth of coal use in China.  The chart above reflects that fact pictorially.


China will have more nuclear power, more renewable power, and more natural gas  going forward and they are likely to burn a little less coal than in 2014 going forward.  This does not bode well for coal producers excepting that other countries may still increase coal use but even that is unlikely.  It is therefore quite possible that 2014 was the year of peak coal. 

A decade ago the US DOE and companies like Peabody Coal were touting clean coal as the world’s energy savior.  Clean coal is an oxymoron.  Coal is as clean as Al Gore and he is simply a moron.

China will import natural gas from Russia and maybe a bit as LNG from Australia but will also develop its shale reserves.  The Australian and US LNG projects are going to suck wind so to speak with spot prices for LNG cargoes now around $7.25 a million BTUs.

The industry that got smacked the hardest in the LNG Supply Chain is the shippers of the LNG.  Charter rates for a LNG tanker are now $20,000 a day versus $140,000 in late 2012 early 2013.




The 86% drop in charter rates just shows the power of the supply demand marketplace and the highly elastic relationship.  LNG is now a dog of a business.  In fact there is not one commodity business that is doing well.  Iron Ore, Copper, Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Nickel, etc. are all in the doldrums.  Even Lithium miners are not booming although lithium consumption is increasing.

The silver lining to this is that global growth in the addition of greenhouse and acid gases in our atmosphere is no more than last year and will likely remain on a slower growth trajectory for the next decade.   The growth in US CO2 emissions for 2015 over 2014 look like it will also be zero or down by 0.1%.  The US has substituted a bunch of natural gas for coal in power generation.  Before we get too happy.  The global addition of GHG to the atmosphere in 2015 will equal approximately 70 trillion pounds.  The 7.2 billion people on earth only weigh approximately 700 billion pounds, hence approximately 100 times the mass of humans on the planet will be added to the atmosphere in the form of CO2 in a single year.


Of course folks will say that renewable electricity caused the slowdown in growth of GHG emissions but I know it is the slowdown in the Chinese economy and low cost natural gas that has tilted the slope of the growth curve to a zero inclination.  My inclination is to go and buy a LNG tanker and turn it into a cruise ship.  Some rich eccentric nerd may just charter the LNG tanker with a few of his friends for $30,000 a day and sail up the Malacca Straits dressed in pirate costumes.

9 comments:

  1. Most likely a she.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ching_Shih

    ReplyDelete
  2. She was a pirate that made other pirates look weak like Obama

    ReplyDelete
  3. She was a pirate that made other pirates look weak like Obama

    ReplyDelete
  4. Michael Kors Outlet http://www.michaelkorsoutlet.us.org

    Coach Factory Outlet http://www.coachfactoryoutlet.us.org

    Coach Outlet Online http://www.coachoutletonlinestore.us.org

    Coach Purses http://www.coachpurse.us.com

    Kate Spade Outlet http://www.katespadefactoryoutlet.us.com

    Toms Shoes http://www.toms-shoes.name

    Hermes Belts http://www.hermesbelts.us.org

    Louis Vuitton http://www.louisvuitton-outletstores.us.com

    Fendi Handbags http://www.fendibelt.us.com

    Giuseppe Shoes http://www.giuseppezanotti.eu.com

    Michael Kors Outlet http://www.michael-kors-outlet.us.com

    Stephen Curry Shoes http://www.stephencurryshoes.us.com

    Salomon Shoes http://www.salomonshoes.eu.com

    North Face Outlet http://www.northfacesoutlet.in.net

    Coach Outlet http://www.outletcoach.in.net

    North Face Outlet http://www.northfacesoutlet.us.com

    Burberry Outlet http://www.burberryoutletstore.us.org

    North Face Outlet http://www.north-faceoutlets.in.net

    North Face Jackets http://www.outletnorthface.in.net

    Skechers Shoes http://www.skechersshoes.us.com

    Toms Outlethttp://www.tomsoutletstore.us.org

    North Face Outlet http://www.northfacestoreoutlet.us.org

    Nike Air Max http://www.nikeoutlet.us.org

    Nike Hoodies http://www.nikehoodies.us.com

    Marc Jacobs Handbags http://www.marcjacobshandbags.name

    Marc Jacobs Outlet http://www.marcjacobsoutletstore.us.com

    Jimmy Choo Shoes http://www.jimmy-chooshoes.us.com

    Jimmy Choos http://www.jimmychoos.in.net

    Burberry Belt http://www.burberrybelt.us.com

    Louis Vuitton Belt http://www.louisvuitton-belt.com

    Salvatore Ferragamo http://www.ferragamo-belt.us.com

    Marc Jacobs Handbags http://marcjacobshandbagsoutlet.blog.com

    Lululemon Outlet http://www.lululemonsoutlet.us.com

    True Religion Outlet http://www.truereligion-outlets.in.net

    Tommy Hilfiger http://www.tommyhilfigeroutlet.us.com

    Michael Kors Outlet http://www.outletmichaelkors.eu.com

    Coach Outlet http://www.outletcoach.eu.com

    Red Bottoms http://www.redbottom.in.net

    Kevin Durant Shoes http://www.kevindurantshoes.us.org

    New Balance Outlet http://www.newbalanceoutlet.in.net

    Adidas Outlet http://www.adidasoutlet.in.net

    Coach Outlet Online http://www.coachoutlet-online.eu.com

    Stephen Curry Jersey http://www.stephencurryjersey.us.com

    Vans Outlet http://www.vansoutlet.us.com

    Ralph Lauren Outlet http://www.ralphlauren-outletstore.in.net

    True Religion Outlet http://www.true-religionoutlets.in.net

    ED Hardy Outlet http://www.edhardyoutlet.in.net

    North Face Outlet http://www.northfaceoutlet.eu.com

    UGG Outlet http://www.uggoutlet.us.org

    UGG Outlet http://www.outletugg.in.net

    North Face Outlet http://www.northface--outlet.us.com

    Ugg Boots Sale http://www.uggbootssale.in.net

    UGGS For Women http://www.uggsforwomen.us.com

    Skechers Go Walk http://www.skechersgowalk.us.com

    Adidas Yeezy Boost http://www.adidasyeezyboost.in.net

    Adidas Yeezy http://www.adidasyeezy.us.com

    Adidas NMD http://www.adidas-nmd.us.org

    Coach Outlet http://www.coachoutletinc.us.com

    ReplyDelete



  5. شركة نقل اثاث بالدمام التفاؤل شركة نقل اثاث بالخبر كما انها افضل شركة نقل اثاث بالجبيل نقل عفش واثاث بالجبيل والخبر والقطيف والدمام
    شركة نقل اثاث بالدمام
    شركة نقل اثاث بالجبيل
    شركة نقل اثاث بالقطيف

    ReplyDelete