Despite all the chatter that we are greening up the US is
using more fuel and emitting more carbon than it did last year. Per the US EIA for the first five months of
2014 versus the same period in 2013 gasoline usage is up 1.7%, jet fuel usage
is up 2.4% and diesel fuel usage is up 4.8%.
The good news on the flip side
of this is that economic activity seems to be picking up.
Dr. Moniz the Secretary of Energy who I like to joke looks
like he is from Mad Magazine, has been posting on Facebook how he and the administration
are leading us to a greener more carbon neutral future. Of course one year of data is not a trend but
petroleum usage in 2013 was up over 2012 and 2014 is pointing to be up over
2013.
The utter chaos in Iraq together with increased global
demand for oil is causing prices to rise.
The world loves liquid fuels and is burning it like there is no
tomorrow. Had the US not started
producing shale oil and gas the price of oil would have reached $200 a barrel
and natural gas would be selling for three times as much as it does now. We are so bloody lucky that shale oil and gas
came to our rescue. The socialist nincompoops
that still argue we should not be fracking are thermodynamic and economic
idiots. Even Dr. Moniz called the
fracking of shale a boon to the US. I
say fracking saved our ass.
I had written a few months back about a Green Gringo in
Seattle who has over 100,000 miles on his Nissan Leaf. That guy did his part by tapping into the
grid that has pretty low carbon emissions due to the large amount of
hydroelectric power in the Northwest. Elon Musk claims he will open up his patents
on his gangrene Tesla which hogs lithium and really is not a green
vehicle. I think this is a marketing
ploy by Tesla as their sales have already declined in the USA year over year
and smaller EVs such as the Leaf are gaining market share. Inside EVs dot com reports Tesla US sales have dropped like a stone from 8,700 last year
for the first five months to only 5,600 this year.
The Leaf has picked up sales with 10,389 vehicles sold year
to date versus 7,614 last year. Elon may
think he should share his patents but Nissan does not really need his
help. The Model S has been one of the
fastest flops in terms of model sales in the US. The
Mitsubishi I MiEV is another flop. Elon
has buoyed his stock price by hyping the Giga Battery factory that I call the
giggle battery factory as it is a joke.
Don’t get me wrong the Model S is an engineering marvel and is the electric
Aston Martin but there is only a limited market for that type of car and Tesla
will not be the VW of EVs and the giggle factory is a joke.
The PV project I worked on in Chile is up and running and
has taken the equivalent of over 40,000 cars off the roads in carbon emissions
savings. Since its introduction in
2012, the total sales of the Tesla Model S has only been 25,900 vehicles in the
US. We also know that an EV does not
replace a full ICE car by reducing CO2 emissions
as the grid has CO2 emissions. Perhaps a
half a car is replaced by the Tesla Model S, meaning all Elon has done to date
in the US is replace one third of the cars the Green Machine did with part time
consulting gig to a Chilean mining company for the PV project in the
Atacama. The Green Machine wins hands
down with one hand tied behind his back.
Actually my arm is out of the sling and my broken collar bone is healed
and I am now fighting fit to take on the BLOOMDOGGLERs
As you point out you have to go back to the grid to look at carbon dioxide savings from EVs. An EV gets 3 miles per kw-hr. If you go back to the power plant and look at losses in producing electricity, transmission to the car battery, and AC to DC conversion, a car gets about 1 kw-hr. per mile. Since a gallon of gas has 36 kw-hr. energy content; the EV is getting 36 mpg equivalent. The actual car is small and heaver due to battery weight. An IC powered car like EVs would easily get 40 mpg. If you had a hybrid you might get 50 mpg.
ReplyDeleteJames Rust
Prof Rust. U need to talk to Lindsay's friend - Vic.
DeleteI totally agree with your assessment and I'm a Physician not an Engineer.
The reaction to Iraq says it all. Currently, the USA only gets oil from the Kurdish fields any way and Shale derived gas and oil makes the US Energy Independent and a NET EXPORTER. So, why not let Iraq disintegrate into its NATURAL POLITICAL BORDERS???. Because the Iraqi Kurds will finance the Turkish Kurds and the Iranian Kurds and result in an INDEPENDENT KURDISTAN. This will break up a NATO Ally, Turkey. AND PUTIN COULD INTERVENE TO STABILIZE RUSSIA AS HE HAS IN THE UKRAINE. Oil wise, China was the main beneficiary of the Oil fallout from toppling Saddam Hussein. ALL IN ALL, THE US BY ITSELF CANNOT GREEN THE WHOLE PLANET - THE RISE IN OIL PRICES ON THE FUTURES MARKET AMPLY DEMONSTRATE THAT. CHINA IS THE BIG BULL IN THE SHOP NOW, NO LONGER THE USA. CHINA DOESN'T EVEN NEED TO FLEX ONE SINGLE MILITARY MUSCLE, SAVING THEM TONS OF CASH. A totally different OBJECTIVE AND GLOBAL Energy use Policy is needed. And we haven't even got talking about the Indians in this equation.
ReplyDeleteRussia borders every territory in this region, DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY.
ReplyDeleteJames an David great comments. The US EPA lies about the MPGe of EVs so neophytes like Dr P. Buy Elons hype
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