Wednesday, March 20, 2013

KIOR – Ships Essentially Zero Biofuels But Condi Thinks This Is Big





On Monday KIOR announced their results for 2012.  They also announced they shipped the first commercial quantity of biodiesel made from wood chips in Mississippi.

The link to their full press release is below.

Of particular interest to me is the statement in their press release by Condi Rice ex secretary of state and now a board member of KIOR.
 
Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. Secretary of State and a current member of KiOR's Board of Directors, added, "KiOR is changing the American energy equation by innovating and commercializing an entirely new generation of hydrocarbon-based diesel and gasoline fuel. By making the promise of cellulosic fuels a reality, KiOR demonstrates that these fuels are an attractive option for lessening America's dependence on foreign sources of energy." 

Ms. Rice I think you went a little too far in stating that KIOR made the promise of cellulosic fuels a reality.  They shipped  a small amount of cellulosic fuel blended together with normal fossil based diesel.


In their earnings call their CFO stated : 
“As Fred mentioned, while we’ve commenced shipments but have not cut over yet to reaching or extended operations and we don’t expect to be cut over for some time. As a result shipments can be expected to be a bit sporadic as units operations are optimized over the months again, gradually smoothing later in the year as the plants focus turns from lining out to maximizing utilization and efficiency. Until then though, for planning purposes we are assuming that our 2013 total production target of 3 to 5 million gallons will simply occur linearly starting from essentially zero in Q1.”
Here is the link to earnings call


The CFO admitted commercial shipments were essentially zero!!


The US DOE is counting on KIOR to ship 57% of all cellulosic fuel the DOE hope will ship in 2013.  This is 8 million gallons of ethanol equivalent out of a total of 14 million gallons of ethanol equivalent cellulosic fuel.


I think it is too early call KIOR a reality.  I think KIOR is making soot, smoke, and very little liquid fuels out of wood.  Ms. Rice this may just be another case of the mistaken “weapons of mass combustion” that probably will never be found.  The DOE also has exuberant and irrational expectations for KIOR.  The Green Machine is going on record that KIOR will ship less than three million gallons of ethanol equivalent cellulosic fuel in 2013.  Credit Swiss lowered their target price of KIOR from $25 to $20 today, I have a target price of $3.

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