On Monday KIOR announced their results for 2012. They also announced they shipped the first
commercial quantity of biodiesel made from wood chips in Mississippi.
The link to their full press release is below.
Of particular interest to me is the statement in their press
release by Condi Rice ex secretary of state and now a board member of
KIOR.
Ms. Rice I think you went a little too far in stating that
KIOR made the promise of cellulosic fuels a reality. They shipped a small amount of cellulosic fuel blended
together with normal fossil based diesel.
In their earnings call their CFO stated :
“As Fred mentioned, while we’ve commenced shipments but have
not cut over yet to reaching or extended operations and we don’t expect to be
cut over for some time. As a result shipments can be expected to be a bit
sporadic as units operations are optimized over the months again, gradually
smoothing later in the year as the plants focus turns from lining out to
maximizing utilization and efficiency. Until then though, for planning purposes
we are assuming that our 2013 total production target of 3 to 5 million gallons
will simply occur linearly starting from essentially zero in Q1.”
Here is the link to earnings call
The CFO admitted commercial shipments were essentially
zero!!
The US DOE is counting on KIOR to ship 57% of all cellulosic
fuel the DOE hope will ship in 2013.
This is 8 million gallons of ethanol equivalent out of a total of 14 million
gallons of ethanol equivalent cellulosic fuel.
I think it is too early call KIOR a reality. I think KIOR is making soot, smoke, and very
little liquid fuels out of wood. Ms.
Rice this may just be another case of the mistaken “weapons of mass combustion”
that probably will never be found. The
DOE also has exuberant and irrational expectations for KIOR. The Green Machine is going on record that KIOR
will ship less than three million gallons of ethanol equivalent cellulosic fuel
in 2013. Credit Swiss lowered their
target price of KIOR from $25 to $20 today, I have a target price of $3.
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