Plug-In Electric Cars The New York Times Is Seeing Double

The New York Times has got it wrong again.  They claim that plug in electric cars will account for two thirds of one percent of the US new vehicle market in 2012. 

Note after I published this blog I did receive an email from Bradley Berman who wrote the NYT article that he has revised his online article.  Here is what Mr. Berman emailed me
"Mr. Leveen,

Thanks for your email.  You are correct.  The article misstated the share of the new-car market in the United States that plug-in models are expected to reach for 2012. It is about one-third of 1 percent, not two-thirds of one percent.  

In November, the most recent full month in which sales numbers have been reported, the share of the new-car market was about two-thirds of 1 percent. 

The web version of the article has been corrected.

Bradley Berman"

 

This was claimed in the article titled Make way for kilowatts, A growing Up year for Plug-ins.  Unfortunately  the New York Times is seeing double.  The sales of all plug in vehicles in the USA in 2012 will be around 54,000 units while the whole new vehicle market for the US in 2012 will be approximately  14.5 million units.  By dividing the 54,000 by 14.5 million yields a fraction that is closest to one third of one percent rather than two thirds of one percent.  That is why the NYT is seeing double to put a green spin on what has basically been a flop in the market.

The US is actually the largest market in the world for plug-in vehicles.  The Chinese market for vehicles of all types is a larger market than the US but the sales of plug-in vehicles in China this year will only equal approximately 10,000 vehicles.  Pike Research who is often over optimistic about the market potential of plug-in vehicles now forecasts the Chinese market for plug-ins will only reach 50,000 units in 2015.  Note the total market of plug-ins is the sum of fully electric and plug-in hybrids. 

I performed a bunch of tedious math to extract the following data.  The Federal Government will dole out approximately one third of a billion dollars in tax credits for the 54,000 plug in cars.  I guess the fiscal cliff could be made steeper by 100 billion dollars if all car owners got the same treatment as plug in car owners.  The cumulative quantity of lithium ion batteries in these 54,000 vehicles will approximately equal 960,000 kilowatt hours.   This is the amount of chemical energy in about 30,000 gallons of gasoline.  Of course the batteries will be recharged perhaps some 1,000 times during their lifetime.  Therefore all the recharges of all the batteries over all of their lifetime will equal the chemical energy in 30 million gallons of gasoline or about the amount of gasoline we use in 2 hours. 

I guess two hours of gasoline usage over the lifetime of all of the plug-ins sold in 2012 according to the New York Times is making way for Kilowatts.  Unfortunately for us the New York Times is widely read but poorly written.  The headline should have read “One Third of A Billion Dollars Of Federal Tax Credits to Richer Americans Bought One Third of One Percent of All New Personal Vehicles in 2012.”  The Other 99.67% got screwed.   

Merry Christmas to the 99.67% who are simply too naïve to understand that the government of, for, and by the one third of one percent of the people has an energy policy Abe Lincoln would now make this remark about “Nearly all men can stand adversity, but if you want to test a man's character, give him electric power.”

Yes the photo is of Bush and Chaney inspecting a plug-in being charged. The photo is from September 2008 when Rick Wagoner (next to President Bush in the photo) was still leading GM and the Volt had high hopes.  Immediately after the photo was taken the economy dived.  Yes the wire charging the plug-in car looks mighty thin but that was the whole hype of the Volt.

CH4 Not Gore Lowered Carbon Emissions

Yesterday I splurged $1.17 at Go Daddy to register the domain www.ch4notgore.com  for a year.  Dozens of my blogs have dealt with natural gas being the best alternate for power generation in combined cycle stations and that compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas make real sense as a transportation fuel.  CH4 is methane and methane constitutes approximately 98% of natural gas.

CH4notGore will probably go mass market using a T Shirt with the above photo printed on it.  I intend to sell the T Shirt at the next annual meeting of the American Petroleum Institute to thank them for the fine work they did in bringing us shale natural gas despite Gore's attempts to stop this real green fuel.

Anderson Cooper has the motto "Keeping Them Honest", CH4notGore has the motto "Keeping Ex Elected Officials Honest".  I am sure that with Al, Col, Condi and numerous other opportunists on the Green Bandwagon I will have to print several T Shirts.

The Green Machine is not the only one extolling the virtues of natural gas.

Sudhir one of the regular readers of GreenExplored sent me an email with a link to article titled “Who Needs Kyoto? Cheap Natural Gas Is the Answer.”

The article was written by Joel Kurtzman Executive Director, Center for Accelerating Energy Solutions, Milken Institute.  The Milken Institute holds a global conference each year that is a meeting of the who is who in world movers and shakers. 

I agree with the conclusions of Kurtzmans article “that It is ironic that the a country that declined to ratify the Kyoto protocols is now poised to exceed the standard in levels and perhaps timing.”  Note the grammar error is from a direct quote in the article. 

Unfortunately for those who wish to use data from the article, the article has a couple of factual errors.   The factual errors do not diminish the role of Natural Gas in lowering carbon emissions and Mr. Kurtzman’s thesis that natural gas has been good for the air, good for the economy, and especially good for consumers is absolutely spot on. 

The errors in his article are as follows:

The article states “In 2008, CO2 emissions were about 1,600 million metric tons a year, according to the EIA. Today, they are 1,300 metric tons, a drop of nearly 20 percent.”   US CO2 emissions in 2008 were 5,802 million metric tons and are expected by the EIA to be approximately 5,300 million tons for 2012 which is a drop of 8.7%.

The article states "In 2008, about half of America's electricity was produced by burning coal, with 20 percent produced from natural gas, according to the EIA.  Today, 40 percent of our electricity comes from natural gas with coal's share just 32 percent."   The 2008 data are correct but in 2012 37.5% of electricity in the USA is estimated by the EIA to be generated from coal and 30.4% from natural gas.  See the chart from the EIA below.

The article correctly pointed out that by having access to low cost natural gas the US has effectively lowered its yearly carbon emissions and that our country does not need expensive carbon but should continue to focus on producing shale natural gas for two purposes namely more jobs through economic growth and lower carbon emissions through the wonder of natural gas as a fuel.

Happy Holidays and keep the force of hydrocarbons behind you.

The Green Machine

The Right Foot Is Gangrene

My motivation to blog about energy today is pretty low yet I feel compelled to write my weekly diatribe on who is gangrene.  I will pick on the right side of the isle this week as they too have folks who are out to make green out of green.

First let’s go with Hank Paulsen the Secretary of the Treasury under GW.  He is an ex Goldman Sachs CEO and Chairman.  Goldman Sachs (GS) is perhaps the most well connected investment bank and was the savior of Tesla after it was technically insolvent on September 29^th.    Hank is involved with Coda the Chinese American EV company that just laid off 15% of their staff due to dismal sales on their Fully Electric vehicle that looks like a Honda Civic from the mid 1990s.  Hank invested in Coda Blue together with Philip Falcone.  Falcone is now being charged by the SEC with securities fraud.

 

Coda is filled with ex GS executives and will likely hit the wall soon unless GS and some of their well-heeled friends pump money into enterprise just as they did with Tesla.   GS saved Elon Musk’s  Tesla and Elon repaid his friends by letting GS participate in the IPO of SolarCity.  You see the whole thing is circular in the matter of back scratching.   OK enough about GS and Hank the Yank, who else from the right side of the isle is also gangrene?

Condi Rice is the next person trying to make green from green.  Vinod Khosla announced that Condi was joining his organization as a strategic adviser.    Condi already is a board member of KIOR the soon to fail wood to oil alchemic company.  Remember Khosla has had a hand in Cello, Range Fuels, Calera, and Amyris.   Kholsa has Condi Rice and Kleiner Perkins has Colin Powell as “strategic advisers”.  I guess it is only a matter of time before Susan Rice is picked up by a leading VC firm to help them on strategy in Rawanda.  Hillary Clinton is far too smart and far too capable to go on five Sunday talk shows and act as a movie critic so I doubt she will ever lend her name to Khosla or Kleiner for their gangrene investments.

A 123 stock is now trading for 2 cents a share and the Obama administration will have to rule if the Chinese company that won the auction in bankruptcy can take over A 123.  Al Gore’s and Colin Powell’s Fisker is holding off on producing any more Karma’s until the matter of A 123 ownership is resolved.  The State of Delaware is still paying the power bill to keep the promised Fisker factory in the First State in a ready state to be equipped to assemble hundreds of thousands of Fiskers.  Steven Tyler is singing Dream On.

The Nissan battery assembly plant in Smyrna Tennessee has opened and has assembled some lithium ion batteries for the 2013 Leaf that will be launched next year.  The 2013 Leaf will have a new heater that does not drain the battery pack as much.  Wow for $1.4 billion in US DOE loans we will have the Re Leaf that may actually get from Smyrna to Cookeville without having to plug into a TVA power line.   Interesting instead of 200,000 Leaves forecasted for sale we now have one tenth the number being thrown around by a Nissan spokesman.  Perhaps Chu Chu can ask for 90% of the DOE loan to be repaid immediately?   It is 116 miles from Smyrna to Chattanooga?   This is probably too far for a 2013 Leaf to do on a single charge so it would have to be put on a Chu Chu to get there.

Our Country Cries

Our country cries today with the murder of 26 people by a gunman who is also dead. We are lost. We are simply sick beyond words. This country needs to look inward and come to terms with how sick we are. I have no words to explain this madness.

I can only cry for the young and cry even more for the very young. All I can say is the world we have to hand them needs massive mending. We the people need massive mending. The land needs massive mending. The banks need massive mending. The government needs massive mending. The air needs massive mending. The water needs massive mending. But mostly the gun laws need massive mending.

May their souls rest in peace.

 

The UN and Country Membership Dues

In my last blog I put forward the idea of making countries pay UN membership dues in direct proportion to their previous year’s CO2 emissions.  On this basis China will pay for 28% of the operating costs of the UN.  The US will pay 16% and France will pay only 1%.  The French have a significant amount of nuclear power and their CO2 emissions per person are well below those of Saudi Arabia.  In fact the gross amount of CO2 emissions from France is approximately 25% less than the gross amount of CO2 emissions of Saudi Arabia. 

Several years back, I actually had suggested this idea to Jonathan Lash who then headed the World Resources Institute.  But now the idea really has merit with China emitting so much CO2 and having so much foreign currency reserves.  The Chinese can then thumb their noses at the US that they pay almost twice as much to keep UNESCO and other UN organizations afloat.  The Saudis can claim they play a more important role than France in the world body.  This is actually already a fact so we may as well make them put their money where their mouth is.  The US can claim it needs the reduction in UN dues due to our fiscal cliff and I am sure members on both sides of the isle can agree that the US simply gives the UN too much money.

The country of Niue only emits 4,000 metric tons of CO2 a year so they would be allowed into the UN for free.  But Niue does not conduct any foreign affairs, this is done for them by New Zealand so free membership to the UN for Niue would kind of like being a caddy at a posh country club.  Niue has Wi Fi for free over the entire island and my guess is most of the emissions come from the diesel generators to keep the lights and the Wi Fi on in the small island state that only has 1,400 people living on 100 square miles. 

I think Al Gore should focus on Niue and could make it the first zero carbon emissions country in the whole world.  He could have all the Niuens over 16 years old drive Fiskers and power their electricity supply with diesel and gasoline made from sugar using technology from his other company Amyris.  For good measure he could collect all the manure and food waste on the island and bio-digest these items to make methane that then could be used in his Bloom Box to generate electricity.  The total cost of the endeavor will be about $200 million and the money can come from the added dues the Chinese pay to the UN for their membership.  Al can then fly to Niue in his private jet and declare victory that in one place on earth he had people who really listened to him.

I think if we solve the emissions problems of Niue we can then start working on how China can reduce its emissions.  Yes China will be constructing 800 new coal fired power stations in the next decade and they soon will emit over 30% of world carbon emissions, but don’t worry they sell solar PV cells to the rest of the world at below real production cost and they really care about the collective common good of mankind by the gift of these cheap solar cells.    Dr. Steven Chu will visit Niue and give a keynote lecture on why he still believes CIGS (copper indium gallium diselinide) is a far better chemistry than Silicon for PV cells and that he would have preferred that the Niuens drive pure electric cars like the Tesla rather than the gasoline electric combination of the Fisker.   As the Niuens don’t conduct their own foreign policy the islanders will simply stay on the beach and not attend the Gore and Chu lectures and they will let the Kiwis do this for them. 

Ban Ki Moon will send an email to all the people of Niue on their free high speed Wi Fi that unfortunately he could not attend the event as he now has some real money to spend with China’s increased contribution to the UN and that he has finally convinced Bashar al Assad to use the chemistry he learned in medical school for making Aspirin rather than Sarin.  Ban Ki well also tell them he was enjoying the serendipitous event of new found money for the UN.  And that Bashar was happy to hear that he would not be punished by the world body for misspelling serenade as sarin aid and he simply meant to sooth and calm his people.

Peace The Green Machine

November is Over and China Won

This was a very interesting week in matters green.  I received a report from Taiwan that Chinese silicon based PV cells with 16.2% efficiency are now selling for 25 US cents a watt.  When Solyndra was still on life support about two years ago their target at full production was to get to one dollar per watt.  The Chinese companies from the raw polysilicon starting material through the fully fabricated PV cell are operating without any profit and just selling their products for their cash production costs to keep the employees busy.    The countries that import the cells are basically getting a gift.

What does 16.2% efficiency mean?  It means that 16.2% of the energy in the incident solar radiation becomes electricity.  This is actually pretty remarkable when compared to photosynthesis and plant growth where only approximately 0.1% to 0.2% of the incident solar radiation actually becomes BTUs in the biomass.  The 0.2% is for locations like brazil and sugar cane as a crop and the 0.1% would be for a location like the UK with wheat as the crop.

Vehicle sales in the USA were strong in November and the Chev Volt experienced decreased sales after the heavy rebates and price discounting ended in October.  The Nissan Leaf had slightly weaker sales in November than October even though they instituted large rebates and discounts.  The plug in Prius also had large rebates and discounts and yet sales were also slightly lower in November.   With all of the rebating and discounting plug in vehicle sales were approximately 6,500 vehicles out of the approximately 1.14 million sold in the USA during the month.  The department of entropy will claim this is a very successful program as the plug-ins may reach a total of 50,000 vehicles sold for the full year.    As a footnote China sold 1.42 million vehicles in November and did not report the electric vehicle sales.

The department of entropy issued their 2013 forecast of projected energy usage in the USA through the year 2040.  They now forecast that the USA will be emitting 5% less CO2 in each and every year till 2040 than we did in 2005.  The 2006 forecast that went through 2025 had the US on a path to almost double CO2 emissions by 2025.  What a difference a few years makes in how we forecast the future.  I agree with the latest DOE forecast that we can actually grow the economy and not increase our CO2 emissions.  Unfortunately China , India, and other developing economies will continue to increase their emissions. 

There are negotiations in Doha to try herd the member countries of the UN to agree to limits in carbon emissions.  The famous Kyoto accord is coming to an end soon and a new accord is needed.  Three years back President Obama, committed the western countries to give the developing countries $100 billion in aid for reducing carbon emissions.  That is not going to happen and the developing countries want little or no part of a new Kyoto protocol, but 15 years after Kyoto their emissions now eclipse those of the developed economies.  I still think the best idea is to peg the annual dues a country pays to the UN in direct proportion to their carbon emissions of the previous year. 

Carbon credits in Europe traded as low as $7 per short ton this week.  The cost of gasoline is down in Northern California.  I paid $3.75 a gallon versus $4.95 a gallon at its peak two months ago at the very same gas station.  The new name for the developed economies should be the declining economies and the new name for developing economies should be the inclining economies.   Perhaps by using these terms we could reach agreement on how to tackle global carbon emissions.  It is not nice to be called undeveloped it is much more correct to be called inclining.   The western economies are no longer developed they are declining.  The question is simply how rapidly and how far they decline.  I shall simply decline to answer this question.

The Green Department of Defense

Another week and we are another 20 billion dollars in debt.  But we will have a slightly greener military.  The US Senate restored the DOD’s ability to buy alternate fuels for the now small navy.  Of course what the Clinton News Network never mentioned was that the unit cost of diesel from algae is $15 a gallon versus only $3 for diesel from an oil refinery.  As a gallon of diesel emits approximately 20 pounds of CO2 and assuming the diesel from algae only emits half as much CO2 the implicit carbon tax of the action to restore gangrene fuel to the fleet is approximately $2,400 a short ton.  Not too shabby for a bankrupt state to pay $2,400 a ton tax on the ox-hide of carbon.  The Navy could simply have bought some carbon offsets in Europe that are now trading at $7.22 a short ton and saved the US taxpayers some $2,392.78 per short ton.

Talking of ox-hides the air force also got into the act of buying gangrene alternate jet fuels for their aviators in leather bomber jackets.  The jet fuel story is a bit more convoluted as the sugar to transportation fuel route has to go through iso-butanol and the carbon savings are even less than half compared with oil refinery based jet fuel.

What was particularly interesting is that 11 Senators on the Republican side of the isle joined the gangrene crowd on the left in greening of the military and fleecing those that financially support the military.  Breitbart reported the following:

“Republican Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Roy Blunt (R-MO), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Susan Collins (R-ME), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), John Hoeven (R-ND), Mike Johanns (R-NE), Dick Lugar (R-IN), Jerry Moran (R-KS), Olympia Snowe (R-ME), and John Thune (R-SD) joined Democrats to pass an amendment by a 62-37 vote that eliminated the provision that prohibited the Pentagon from spending money on alternative fuels if it cost more than traditional sources.

Senators from the Midwest such as Grassley and Moran voted for the amendment because of the "growing business of alternative fuels" in their states. “

It is kind of sad that Senator Grassley of Iowa likes wind and ethanol out of his Hawkeye State and yet is on the right side of the argument when it comes to plug in electric cars not produced in Iowa.  He is simply on the wrong side of this argument but he wants voter support from Iowans.  Politics makes very strange bed fellows. 

Perhaps the President can make a speech about how many tons of CO2 the military has saved by not using bayonets any longer.   Of course the President won’t mention that the military got rid of all the horses that were one hundred percent renewable fuel based.   Perhaps the 11 Republican Senators can come back into the fold by adding an amendment that the 11^th Cavalry will replace the 102^nd Airborne and the US Army will only use Green Berets in the future.