Saturday, August 14, 2010

A One given the ten count

I predicted that A123 (AONE NASDAQ) was destined to flop. Many of my readers chastised me for being too negative on advanced batteries. Well if you were a shareholder who bought AONE stock soon after their IPO last year at $28 a share you should have followed my advice that AONE was a short circuit and just like a fuse that gets blown your money was certain to get blown investing in their hype. Well last week the belly flop landing of AONE was center stage on Wall Street. Their junk science of lithium ion batteries as an alternate to petroleum is rapidly being exposed by their inability to lower the unit costs of the batteries they sell. In fact if one takes the time as I did to review their unit costs to manufacture a kilowatt hour worth of battery storage one will quickly discover that over the last six quarters AONE has managed to deliver a learning rate that equals 0%. Their unit cost in the second quarter of 2010 is still approximately $1,300 per kilowatt hour of battery storage.
The next set of earning for Tesla Motors (TSLA NASDQ) will prove that they together with AONE are the class dummies that are incapable of any learning. Our moronic government that has a negative learning rate is still pouring money into the tail pipe dream of advanced batteries. We pay taxes and the fools at the department of entropy hand out tens of trillions of pennies to the junk science folks simply because the President and Congressional Leaders never studied thermodynamics and still believe hope is a winning strategy. Hope is not going to overturn the second law of thermodynamics it will simply waste precious time for us to become a nation of energy savers. The economic crisis forced us to become a nation of economic savers. Now the ecological crisis should correspondingly force us to become a nation of ecologic savers. Come on Americans start carpooling and don’t believe in the Leaf or the Tesla they are thermodynamic mirages that will be blown away by the slightest wind. If we carpool twice a week with three people in the carpool we will each save a bunch of gasoline. Let’s calculate this amount of gasoline savings. Three in a car means two cars off the road, and this equals 140 million cars off the road for two days a week. That is 560 million gallon of gasoline saved a week. Now we are talking real and immediate savings that do not require any technical breakthrough. It just requires the willingness on our part to save and not waste and to become just a little more ecological.

AONE started last week with a stock price of$10.50 and ended the week at $7.63. The market has realized that AONE is a Betamax and that their costs are not dropping. The market is waking up to the fact that they have no value proposition. Talking about super hypers, old Raser (RZ NYSE) the wealth eraser that made claims of having invented the 100 mpg Hummer that the Governator and Senator Hatch drove and proclaimed to be the future of motoring hit a nice low of 30 cents a share this week. Had my readers followed my advice that Raser was pure junk they too could have avoided the loss of value of their investment. 100 mpg Hummers and low price lithium batteries are not plausible so let’s wake up and smell the roses. The real sweet smelling ecological rose is cruising in the HOV lane with three in a Jetta TDI while the fools with a negative learning rate are stuck in bumper to bumper traffic in their lone driver SUV.


  1. A man cut apparently cut from the same cloth as you.

    Is the high cost of nickel why we never reached the $/kwh projected in the report or something else altogether?

  2. I gave outside witness testimony to the US Senate that raw materials make up 75% of the cost of the battery. You cannot reduce the raw materials else you reduce the power and energy of the battery. Nickel cobalt lithium salts graphite steel plastic etc. make up the raw materials and these are all headed up not down. Batteries are for phones, laptops, and perhaps electric bikes.