Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Bye Bye BP

A week or so ago one of my friends asked me if he should buy BP stock now that it is hammered. I told him that morally I could not buy the stock of a criminal entity. I also told him I felt pretty confident that BP would not survive as an independent company for another year. He told me I was crazy. Well today we get this article from CNBC on BP.

A widely regarded authority in the energy sector tells Fast Money, "“I don’t think BP [BP 34.6775 -2.0825 (-5.67%) ] will last as a company for more than a matter of months.”

You read that right – not a a public company by end of summer.

Those comments were made by energy investment banker Matt Simmons during a conversation about the oil trade.

And he doesn't think Transocean [RIG 46.33 -2.84 (-5.78%) ] or any other company is in jeopardy - just BP.



"I think the service companies are going to be exonerated," he said. "This was all BP's fault."

The headline comment came up, when Karen Finerman asked how to invest in the wake of the spill. Simmons replied "I don't think BP is going to last - at least not for more than a matter of months."

That's largely because the spill has grown to be so massive.

”President Obama got in writing from (BP CEO) Tony Hayward that he would clean up the Gulf of Mexico. And right now the spread is larger that the state of Washington,” Simmons says. And it continues to grow.

Ultimately, Simmons thinks the cost of clean-up will just be too massive for BP to bear.

If you're looking for a trade Simmons also tells us because of the moratorium in the gulf, investors should seek companies leveraged to exploration drilling overseas. "It's almost a certainty that we step back and say we don't have the tool kit to go safely to these water depths."

Of course, we'd be remiss not to tell you that Simmons can lean toward the dramatic. Last week he told us that the most effective way to plug the spill in the gulf was to use a nuclear explosives.

However, let us reiterate that Simmons is widely followed in the industry. And Wall Street listens to what he says.

You might want to do the same.

5 comments:

  1. Yes, I would like Obama to listen to Simmons and get the hole plugged NOW. Not 2 months from now with relief wells that Simmons says won't work anyhow because the well casing has blown out. Do we really want to wait for another estimated 120,000 bpd (by Woods Hole research vessel Thomas Jefferson) times 60 days = 7.2 million barrels or 302.4 million gallons leaks into the GOM before we have to try the nuke anyway? At this pace they would also add another million gallons of toxic dispersant by then too. Ask the Russians for help! They nuked big blowouts in the 70s!

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