Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Warming Thoughts #8---Moral Hazard, the Precautionary Principle and Defunding Fossil Fuels

 



By: James F. Lavin, CEO Electron Storage, Inc.

 

If fossil fuel use, as advocated by many, ceased tomorrow, anthropomorphic global warming would indeed be dramatically slowed.   But most climate activists and most politicians haven’t considered the potential costs of such an abrupt transition; if tomorrow fossil fuels vanished, most of the humanity would be dead within a month.   There would be no food, no water, no sewage, no fertilizer, no communication.  I have read endless articles on the moral hazards of geoengineering research, and the moral hazards of CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) due to the potential that they might delay the end of fossil fuel use, but I have not seen any articles on the real potential hazards of government policies, mandates, bank regulator dictums, lawsuits, societal opprobrium, and shareholder resolutions aimed at ending the use of fossil fuels.

 

The precautionary principle so often used with regard to drugs and chemicals is to be very careful and ban the use of unproven technologies that may cause harm until proven otherwise, yet even optimists admit that 40% of the technologies we need to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050 have yet to be developed.  The clean energy supply and energy distribution system to replace fossil fuels doesn’t yet exist.  If the incredibly rapid, difficult and technologically difficult doesn’t happen a schedule dictated by political sound bites, and we have crippled our fossil fuel distribution networks and power generation networks, the risk is to billions of lives. 

 

Why doesn’t the precautionary principle, so aggressively applied to minor plant genetic modifications, or, say, vaccines, apply to the grand experiment mandating the end of fossil fuel use?   There is too much comfort that fossil fuels and fossil fuel infrastructure will be there as a backstop despite every attempt to defund and cripple them.

 

Why aren’t we discussing the moral and real hazards involved in cutting off investment in new oil and gas fields, which are required to maintain earth’s population until we have proven on a wide-scale we can achieve transition?  Oil and gas supply, power plants, and the pipelines to distribute them take decades to develop; if a transition away from fossil fuels is ineffectively managed, they can’t simply be turned on at a moment’s notice to replace lost energy.  Suppose we can’t develop and deploy myriad technologies at the massive scale needed to effectuate the energy transition-- and we don’t have the fossil fuels and fossil fuel infrastructure still in place because we have starved them of investment? 

 

Because I still live here, let’s discuss New York.  New York is behind only Rhode Island in energy efficiency; it uses much less fuel for transportation than other states due to the extensive mass transit use in New York City.  It had one of the least carbon-intensive power grids due to hydropower largely from Niagara Falls, and until the shutdown of the Indian Point nuclear plant, 1/3rd of its grid power was nuclear.  NYSERDA has been taxing ratepayers to supposedly aggressively funding energy efficiency and transition projects for 45 years.

 

Despite these advantages, New York, to achieve net zero (ignoring the fact that New York imports many carbon-intensive products and foodstuffs) has to TRIPLE the capacity of the electrical transmission and distribution grid and find massive new clean power sources capable of meeting winter peak demand. There’s not a lot of sun in upstate New York in the winter, and electricity needs will grow dramatically as home heating is forced to switch from fossil fuels to electric heat pumps.  

 

But there has been no building of new large scale electrical transmission and distribution lines.  There is opposition to on-land wind farms, and the US government just cancelled two of the proposed offshore wind projects.  Despite this the government has blithely banned fracking and prohibited new pipeline development.  No progress, no feasible plan, and more proclamations competing for how soon New York must stop emitting CO2.

 

However, lets image that the sky is filled with linemen running new electric lines, no lawsuits delay massive new high voltage transmission lines, everyone wants modular nukes (assuming they are developed) in their backyards, multiple communities don’t object to massive wind projects everywhere, and somehow gas supply remains robust.   Even in this fantasia, what happens as gas main volume drops until they are uneconomic to maintain for those communities and individuals who couldn’t transition to electric heat and electric cars, and electric apparatuses for drying crops? 

 

Government officials and regulators proclaim and mandate the end of fossil fuels and enforce these proclamations with actions from banning pipelines to stopping new gas connections to forcing fossil fuel power plant retirements and dictating disinvestment in fossil fuels—but where is the responsibility for their citizens safety?  Is there any other area where they operate with such a true disregard for human life while being praised for it?  This is all with regard to New York.  The potential problems imposed upon the less developed world by banning oil and gas are much greater.  Where is the discussion of “climate justice” for killing fossil fuels without adequate, inexpensive replacements?

 

I believe CO2 buildup threatens life as we know it, endangering endless species and altering the planet.  I have dedicated the past 8 years of my life to CDR technologies and discussions.   If we are late in stopping global warming, we create a series of difficulties, most of which we can adapt to or mitigate as we continue to develop solutions.  If we prematurely cripple fossil fuel infrastructure, we will kill billions.  This real, and moral, hazard needs to be front and center in any honest discussion of stopping global warming.

 


52 comments:

  1. Great article. Sounds as if there are too many cooks in the kitchen trying to 'save the world from the 'corrupt use' of fossil fuels '. Trouble is, none of them know how to cook.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Jim, thank you for this. And thank you for your dedication. Have you considered posting this sobering account of what will occur when the current, oil-intensive supportive infrastructure comes to a grinding halt in the LinkedIn matrix?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Delhi Escorts Are highly efficient and very well-organized We have some of the hottest Delhi Kalkaji escorts Girls available to book now, online or Phone. Search Vip Models Call Girls Service by location, by reviews, or price range. Kalkaji Escorts | Delhi Escorts

    ReplyDelete
  4. hii am in delhi gurugram you are finding goood lookig model in gourgaon escort just for a fun call me jaisica find model gurugram for good intentenment.
    call girls gurugram
    gurugram call girls
    gurugram escort service
    call girls gurgaon
    call girls in gurgaon
    Gurgaon escort service
    Gurgaon call girls


    ReplyDelete

  5. شركة تنظيف شقق فلل كنب مجالس موكيت سجاد خيام فرشات خزانات مكيفات زوليات مدارس مكاتب استراحات شركة تنظيف بالرياض إبداع متناهي في تحقيق كل ما تبية شركة غسيل فيلا شقه خيم بيت شعر التعقيم التنشيف التجفيف التنظيف المثالي
    شركة تنظيف واجهات زجاج بالرياض
    شركة تنظيف منازل بالرياض
    شركة تنظيف شقق بالرياض
    شركة تنظيف موكيت بالرياض

    ReplyDelete
  6. I became a big admirer after reading your post. HP Google Cloud Print Setup steps are clear and easy to understand
    Great job and I have no other words to comment
    I'm impressed and excited to know more about your profile

    ReplyDelete
  7. Packers and Movers Hyderabad Give Certified and Verified Service Providers, Cheap and Best ###Office Relocation Charges, ***Home Shifting, ✔✔✔Goods Insurance worth Rs. 10,000, Assurance for Local and Domestic House Shifting. Safe and Reliable Household Shifting Services in Hyderabad with Reasonable Packers and Movers Price Quotation @ Packers And Movers Hyderabad

    ReplyDelete
  8. Checking out the information of any celebrity on net worth to know how much their name and fame worth and their family members.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Great article, I love your writing technique, it’s outstanding. I will surely revisit. Deep Good Morning Message for Her

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thanks for sharing. I found a lot of interesting information here. A really good post, very thankful and hopeful that you will write many more posts like this one. You may want to see short memorial quotes

    ReplyDelete
  11. Great post, Thank you for sharing this amazing post, I really appreciate your work You may want to check out happy birthday in heaven, dad 

    ReplyDelete
  12. This blog will show you the fastest, most reliable way to get help with QuickBooks. You will find numerous live chat options that are either 24/7 or available during business hours. When you need support, call QuickBooks Customer Service at +1 855-742-7868 or visit their website.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Quickbooks Customer Service representatives can help you solve any problem that you're having with the software. You can call the number +1 888-272-4881 at any time to speak with a representative. So, if you are having issues with your QuickBooks software, visit Quickbooks Customer Service

    ReplyDelete
  14. I just wanted to say that I love every time visiting your wonderful post! Very powerful and have true and fresh information. Thanks for the post and effort! Please keep sharing more such a blog. Net worth

    ReplyDelete
  15. Thank you! I really enjoyed your post I want to share with you all a useful source. things to do in Charlotte NC Tourtoreview will tell you 15 free yet amazing things to do in Charlotte, NC (North Carolina). From engaging in exciting things-to-do, sightseeing, and exploring impressive tourist attractions, there is a lot to do in this wonderful city.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Sand Blasting Machine
    Are you looking for shot Blasting machine for your industry,
    We are the leading manfacturer and provider of Shot Blasting Machine , Sand Blasting Machine, Abrasive materials equipments related to Airo shot blasting industry like SPray gun , Thermal SPray gun etc

    Visit our website for more information

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  17. This blog is so nice to me. I will keep on coming here again and again. Visit my link as well.. 백링크

    ReplyDelete
  18. To an extraordinary degree beautiful and enthralling post. I was chasing down this sort of data and recognized inspecting this one. Continue posting. Grateful for sharing.
    토토사이트

    ReplyDelete
  19. For the reason that the admin of this website is working, no doubt very shortly it will be well-known, due to its quality contents.
    한국야동

    ReplyDelete
  20. Excellent blog you’ve got here.. It’s difficult to find premium quality writing like yours these days.
    안전놀이터

    ReplyDelete
  21. Enlightening website! We went over your blog and read it and it was incredible to peruse this kind of educational material. Astonishing web journals with loads of valuable data continue to share this sort of content. We will be back soon.
    Rankofy PPC Company In Chandigarh
    Rankofy SEO Services In Chandigarh

    ReplyDelete
  22. Personally, if all web owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the net will be much more useful than ever before. You might also like sudden death rest in peace quotes for friend

    ReplyDelete
  23. Personally, if all web owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the net will be much more useful than ever before. You might also like walmart carpet cleaner rental near switzerland 

    ReplyDelete
  24. WOW, that was something unique my colleague at Gati Packers and Movers In Mangalore suggest me your blog and I am glad he did. Keep providing such useful information for making us educated much more.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Dialing Quickbooks Support Phone Number +1 346-414-8256 in the U.S., allows for answers to any question you may have about QuickBooks. It's also important to note that you can find plenty of information online about QuickBooks. The company's website offers support, the answer to many common questions, and other helpful resources.

    ReplyDelete
  26. When I read your article on this topic, the first thought seems profound and difficult. There is also a bulletin board for discussion of articles and photos similar to this topic on my site, but I would like to visit once when I have time to discuss this topic. 메이저사이트

    ReplyDelete

  27. Hi there

    Very nice content and blog, I found it very informative and useful, hope to read more nice articles like this one around here,

    Keep sharing the best content,

    Best regards!

    Your follower

    Salvatore from:

    Compra de Ingresso on-line – Os ingressos para visitar o Patrimônio Mundial Natural e uma das 7 Maravilhas da Natureza, que abriga as Cataratas do Iguaçu, são limitados e vendidos exclusivamente on-line, com agendamento de dia e horário para o passeio no site Tour Cataratas Cataratas do Iguaçu É importante lembrar que não existe a opção de compra de bilhete físico no parque. É necessário adquirir o ingresso de entrada no Parque Nacional do Iguaçu com antecedência em sites autorizados.

    Thanks and take care

    ReplyDelete
  28. I've seen articles on the same subject many times, but your writing is the simplest and clearest of them. I will refer to 메이저놀이터추천

    ReplyDelete
  29. You are looking for something quick and convenient when you want to transfer a critical patient from one place to another. Something that would make sure that the situation is being taken care of, without any delay. This is where Delhi air ambulance service cost
    come into the picture, and they seem to be the only option available when it comes to moving patients from one place to another


    ReplyDelete
  30. Online gambling clubs, otherwise called virtual club or web gambling club are an internet based rendition of customary gambling clubs출장안마추천
    출장샵매니저
    .

    ReplyDelete
  31. This article is too informative. This is all with regard to New York. The potential problems imposed upon the less developed world by banning oil and gas are much greater. Now it's time to avail HALFCASTE CREAM SET for more information.

    ReplyDelete
  32. The principal region is in choosing the lawyer and the subsequent region is botches made in the wake of choosing the lawyer.
    Brain Injury Attorneys

    ReplyDelete
  33. I have read your article, it is very informative and helpful for me.I really appreciate the valuable information that you provide in your articles. Thanks for posting it. Now it's time to avail taxi milwaukee for more information.

    ReplyDelete
  34. In business matters, lawyers usually charge a discussion expense for the principal office meeting. https://frouharlaw.com/

    ReplyDelete