Better Place is Lost in Space Dumb gets Dumber

UPDATE October 6 .  I just added this link that points out more of who is involved in this gangrene saga

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000788263&fid=4380

Today (0ctober 2 2012) it was announced that Shai Agassi was fired as the CEO of Project Better Place after approximately half a billion dollars of losses in the hair brain scheme be an "operational" company that provides swapped out batteries to electric vehicle owners.

http://www.industryleadersmagazine.com/better-place-ousted-ceo-agassi-due-to-financial-losses/


The blog below was posted in December 2010 the day after Shai Agassi appeared on Charlie Rose to hype his approach to bring electric cars to the world.  Here is a link to the Charlie Rose video of the interview.

 http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11323

 If you have 30 minutes to waste you can watch the interview.  In summary Shai tells Charlie the following:

Shimon Peres the President of Israel challenged him to give up on being the CEO of SAP to start Better Palce

He stated that every 2 years the cost to performance ratio of lithium ion batteries would halve

He stated that by 2020 China will build 40 million electric vehicles a year

He stated that Better Place needed to market a larger car than the Nissan Leaf and hence they chose the Renault.

Here is my blog from 20 months ago that was titled Dumb Gets Dumber



If one set of lithium ion batteries for a plug in vehicle is not a dumb enough idea some guys have come up with the brainwave that multiple sets of lithium ion batteries should be used for a plug in vehicle. Why the need for multiple sets of batteries? So that one can pull up to a service station that has a robot that quickly extracts the on board battery pack and replaces it with a freshly charged pack. Forget that the first battery pack was unaffordable we can quickly change out that unaffordable pack for the next doubly unaffordable pack.

This is the brainchild of a guy named Shai (pronounced Shy) Agassi and his company called Project Better Place. Well my name for his company is “Lost in Space” and his first name should be “Not So Shy” for the almost billion dollars he has raised from idiots in the investment and government community. Last night Not So Shy was on Charlie Rose on Bloomberg touting his brilliant idea and how the great State of California will soon have 50 taxis that run between San Francisco and San Jose that will use his Lost In Space technology. Great a bankrupt state will have 50 taxis out of a fleet of 20 million private vehicles with multiple sets of batteries that no one can afford.

What really got the hair up on my back was when Not So Shy told Charlie Rose that he just met with the Brazilian Foreign Minister and suggested that Brazil use the ethanol the country produces to generate electricity and not use it for a liquid fuel for vehicles. Here is the link to that Charlie Rose interview http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11323 Not So Shy certainly has thermodynamic chutzpah.

I have opined that ethanol as a transportation fuel is dumb, but at least Brazil produces its ethanol from cane sugar and actually has an economic model for ethanol fuel production. Shai here is a lesson from Thermodynamics 101 and Economics 101. Electric power in Brazil is valued at retail at about 8 US cents per KWh. Ethanol is valued at retail at $2.90 per gallon. There are approximately 22 KWh of energy in a gallon of ethanol, therefore as a liquid fuel ethanol’s value is 13 US cents per KWh. OK boy genius Mr. Not So Shy why would a firm take something that sells for 13 cents then lose half the energy generating power while spending tons of capital and then only get half of 8 cents or 4 cents for your product. This is the same economics as your dumb idea to have multiple unaffordable batteries for a car.

Not So Shy does not really care about economics he cares about the environment of our planet and increasing carbon dioxide. Yes his mission is to save the world. His investors and partners include: A123 batteries, HSBC Bank, Lazard, Morgan Stanley, Renault, and Vantage Point Venture Partners. The only guy missing for the take off of Lost in Space is old Bernie who burned on the launch pad. I plead to my readers not to believe this junk science that is made of the same cloth as Bloom Energy.

It is kind of sad that a guy as smart as Charlie Rose could not ask Not So Shy to explain the second law of thermodynamics and how a second set of lithium ion batteries from A123 that cost $50,000 for the Renault ne marche pas Affluence ZE makes any sense to anyone other than Not So Shy who is the grand wizard behind the Lost in Space company.

The President and His CEO Meeting

The President visited the San Francisco Bay Area this week to meet with CEOs and VCs. The meetings had the purpose of assuring the citizens of these United States that the President and his administration are pro business, pro technology, and has a vision for an energy secure future with full employment. The venue for the dinner where the President also invited selected CEOs was at the home of John Doerr. John is a partner in the VC firm Kleiner Perkins. John is ably assisted at Kleiner Perkins by his partner Al Gore. John is also a member of the board of directors of Bloom Energy where he co directs this company with Colin Powell. Simply put John is well connected. Steve Jobs attended the dinner together with Carol Bartz, John Chambers, Dick Costolo, Larry Ellison, Reed Hastings, John Hennessy, Art Levinson, Eric Schmidt, Steve Westly, and Mark Zuckerberg. Very impressive guests and I am sure the food was good. The White House Press Secretary Jay Carney told reporters that “the President specifically discussed his proposals to invest in research and development and expand incentives for companies to grow and hire.”

The Green Machine can only guess at what the guests at John’s home asked of the President but I am pretty sure that John hosted the event to thank the President for his fine energy policy that has supported many of John’s startups. John certainly did not invite any professors of thermodynamics over to his house so the President could actually be told his energy policy is a disaster. I am sure that John’s house is off the grid and power is supplied by a Bloom Box. The Kleiner Perkins portfolio of gangrene companies is quite vast and I am sure they have a high market value. None of the companies are companies that the Green Machine would invest a cent in. In a single word they are all thermodynamic junk. The biggest junk is Bloom, followed by Fisker, Siverspring and Amyris.

Back in China where real things are happening and companies are growing and hiring, President Hu probably had dinner with some engineers who actually build things. He thanked his engineers for building out almost 100,000,000,000 watts of power generation in 2010. He thanked them for building three hydroelectric dams in 2010 that are each twice as large as the Hoover Dam. He thanked them for building nuclear power plants. He thanked them that China now eclipses the US in power generation by more than 25%. Old Long John and his overpriced Bloom Box did not contribute an iota to the 100 billion watt addition to the Chinese grid. Old Long John and his partner Al Gore are the Visigores who are sacking Washington just as the Visigoths sacked Rome 1,600 years ago. They are the epitome of the parasitic leeches that suck this nation dry. This thermodynamic moron has the audacity to hype a company he owns called Lilliputian Systems that makes miniature fuel cells for portable electronic devices. Lilliputian Systems business model is that lithium ion batteries are too weak and too expensive to power a cell phone. John’s other company Fisker believes that lithium ion batteries are powerful and inexpensive and can be used to propel a 5,000 pound automobile for miles. Perhaps John is Gulliver and the Lilliputians just captured him and tied him down. Obama is not Gulliver he is just Gullible. Jonathan Swift could write a whole novel on VCs and politicians who speak the exact opposite from both sides of their mouths.

This is from the Lilliputian Systems Website
“Current battery technology is not expected to satisfy the growing power needs of CE devices. Today’s most advanced research and development efforts targeted at improving battery chemistry, (e.g. Lithium–ion batteries) are expected to only provide incremental performance gains.
When compared to Lithium-Ion battery alternatives, Lilliputian’s solution provides a 5—10x improvement in volumetric energy density (energy density by volume) and 20—40x improvement in gravimetric energy density (energy density by weight) at a fraction of the cost.
Lilliputian Systems’ product platform enables three distinct classes of Personal Power™ solutions – Mobile Power Systems (“MPS”), Integrated Power Systems (“IPS”) and Embedded Power Systems (“EPS”) for use with various consumer electronics devices ranging from mobile phones to laptops. Lilliputian will supply key components, notably the Generator Chip and a reference design, to system integrators who will manufacture the Power Systems.
Lilliputian will make formal product announcements soon.”

This from John Doerr’s mouth in a Senate Committee hearing in January 2009 on how greentech investing can spur the economy:
Doerr mentioned a new “stealth mode” lithium-ion battery maker. He says the unnamed startup “creates stable, durable lithium ion batteries with higher effective storage capacity” that can power electric vehicles “twice as far, and eventually three times as far, to over 100 miles before recharging.”

I pray that the US gets a president in the next election that will show Doerr the door.

Unplugged at Any Speed

In 1965, a then 31 year old Ralph Nader took on General Motors with the publication of his book titled “Unsafe at any speed”. General Motors was at it zenith and it was quite amazing that a young audacious lawyer had the guts to take on this company that in its essence then represented America. A popular saying of the time was “what is good for General Motors is good for America”. This saying was coined in 1955 by Charlie Wilson the Chairman and CEO of General Motors. In the end Charlie is forgotten and Ralph is remembered. Ralph had truth on his side. It is time for a new American with guts and brains to arise and put our house in order. We had hoped this American was Barak Obama but alas he is just another Charlie Wilson.

The next folk hero who takes on the establishment should write a book titled “Unplugged at any speed”. I have opined that plug in hybrids and full electric plug in vehicles are unplugged at any speed. The problem is not just with lithium ion batteries, the entire system is unplugged! The US EPA distorts gas mileage data to convince us that plug in hybrids achieve 100 miles per gallon. Wall Street and the VCs lie about green companies that are in fact gangrene and ready to shed their limbs. University professors are at the pig trough of funding for junk science and play along with the government agencies and companies so that their worthless research can be funded for a few more years. The press is asleep and helps hype the junk science. The old forms of the press are on their last legs as advertising revenue is hard to come.

The events in Egypt and the Arab world have me thinking that perhaps in these super corrupt places the younger folks understand that the system is unplugged for them. The young Egyptians have seen how China, India, and South Korea have risen as industrial and commercial powers based on unleashing free enterprise. The also know that the US and the UK are relics of past centuries and that soon Asia will eclipse the West in economic power. For most of human history Asia eclipsed the West. In 1820 prior to the industrial revolution, Asia accounted for 80% of global GDP. For just 200 years the West has led the world through mechanical, chemical, civil, and electrical engineering marvels. We do not educate our best and our brightest to become engineers. Our smart kids study law or become MBAs. They have learned that parasites prosper in a decaying body.

The body of American life is unplugged from its life support and citizens are deprived of proper representation. My Congresswoman deprived me of my ability to voice my opinion to her committee on science and technology. Her scientific IQ is three below that of plankton yet she blocked my efforts to point out that the energy policy she so ardently supports violates all the laws of physics. Of course she voted over 90% of the time with her party. Yes she knows that the world can only be correct according to one political ideology. That she is an energy idiot is the understatement of the century. That 71% of folks who live in my congressional district vote for her election after election is testimony to how unplugged America has become.

My nephew sent me a link about a recent show that PBS TV Nova did on “Making Stuff Cleaner” February 2, 2011 The program touted the Bloom Box that old Al Gore and his VCs have hyped. I then realized that the program on PBS is produced in cooperation with the Materials Research Society (MRS). Cooperation usually means funding. PBS discloses that “MRS is an international organization of nearly 16,000 materials researchers from academia, industry, and government, and a recognized leader in promoting the advancement of interdisciplinary materials research to improve the quality of life.” Well of course these researchers need DOE and other sources of funding and of course they will show how great the Bloom Box is in order to continue the funding. I doubt that in 2011 that if a scientific genius like Isaac Newton is among us, he or she could get an audience with the House Committee on Science and Technology. Their docket is full of the researchers who are lying through their teeth to get their junk research funded.

It is time to plug into the electrical socket of reality. Egypt and the Arab States have a food crisis as well as a political crisis. The price of wheat, sugar, meat, and energy will drain countries like Egypt and Jordan. China and India will lead Asia forward while Obama and Chu fund junk and dream of Sputnik moments. The VCs will make money out of IPOs that stand for I’m Ponzying Out. The so called academics are collectively on the gravy train to thermodynamic nowhere. Sarah Palin is not that person who will write “Unplugged at Any Speed” she is plain unplugged. Right now I don’t see any young Ralph Nader who has the brains and the courage to take on the establishment but I know some young person in their early thirties is needed to wake us up from this mess.

Facebook is great and Zuckerberg is our new Gates but we need a Nader that will expose rather than exploit. Advertising revenues for Google and Facebook are high. There is tons of connectivity through the new social media but in truth the message that matters has not yet been posted. The message that needs posting is the message to the world that we are unplugged. Old Tim Leary said back in the sixties that we should “turn on, tune in, drop out”. I say “get on, plug in, and speak out”. My hero from the sixties is Alfred E Newman who said “what me worry?” I wish I could do the same. Incidentally the image for Alfred E and the saying predates Mad by some 50 years. In the early 20th century a Dentist named Romine in Topeka Kansas advertised with post cards using a kid with a missing tooth. The Dentist advertised himself as “The Painless Romine” and used a slogan “It didn’t hurt a bit, of course not because I went to the Painless Romine”. Well now Romine is burning, we can no longer fiddle around, and boy it is going to hurt to fix this mess.

The Sputnik Story

I blogged last week that comparing the sputnik moment and the green imperative was thermodynamically dumb. I did a little checking and found that the Saturn V rocket that got man to the moon burned about a million gallons of liquid propellant. I would assume the boys at NASA used a propellant with at least as many BTUs per pound as gasoline so let’s assume the rocket needed one million gallons of gasoline equivalent to get to the moon. The average Yank uses about 600 gallons of gasoline a year tanking up their vehicles. Now we know the energy needed in the liquid propellant to get to the moon could have powered 1,660 cars for a year. There was also a lot of energy used to liquefy oxygen, produce the liquid propellant, and produce the hydrogen and solid propellant in the rocket. Also needed was fuel for the lunar decent, blasting off the moon and firing on the way back to earth. For argument sake let's say each mission required the energy to propel 2,500 vehicles for a year. One can find simulations of the launch of Apollo 11 on the web here is one link

http://www.braeunig.us/apollo/saturnV.htm

No doubt even those among us who are not rocket scientists know that getting to the moon required brute force from rocket fuel. There were 13 launches between 1967 and 1973 of Saturn Vs for the Apollo program, thus we can say approximately 30,000 cars could have been propelled for a year by the energy expended in these launches. This is not that massive a number in comparison to the 243 million private vehicles now registered in the good old USA.

Perhaps President Obama was correct in making the comparison for a very different reason he never thought about. My hunch is only 30,000 plug in vehicles will sell in a year even with the massive tax credit given to these thermodynamically impaired vehicles. Fisker the plug in hybrid behemoth that is a Volt on steroids is again delayed in their launch and the expected price of their vehicle is now well over $80,000. Their oft delayed launch was supposed to be this month. If I remember correctly old Alaric la Deux was behind the wheel at Fisker. Fisker sound like a name of a cat food not an expensive car. How about they change their name to Doggie as the whole thing is a dog of an idea? Of course Fisker got $529 million of government loan guarantees thanks to Alfalfa being behind the wheel. Talk about Muburak having his hands in the till, old Al can tell his buddie Hosni who needs to be in the presidential palace to take the public for a ride.

Putting the bad news aside the Green Machine sees some light at the end of the tunnel. The next generation who are electronically connected will be a generation that uses far less fuel. Statistics from the Federal Highway Administration show that one in every three teens now has a license at 16. It used to be one of every two. Go teens you know the times are a changing! We need electronic connection not electrical connection. As a parting shot, Fisker named their model the Karma I think is should be renamed the Dogma.

Coda Blue- The new code for a voltage flat line

News from DC is that Hu was on first, Obama struck out Shee was on deck and Biden was not even in the ball park


A blog today on micro hybrids. I kind of like things that are small. Micro hybrids are not small cars but cars that use a small assist from a hybrid technology. The small assist is that the engine shuts off when the car is stopped in stop and go traffic. The engine is restarted when the motorist depresses the accelerator. This means the car’s engine may be stopped and started a couple of hundred times a day. A traditional car is started and stopped perhaps half a dozen times a day. This sounds like a really simple solution to improving the gas mileage of cars as well is lowering pollution in urban areas. Yes it is simple but not that simple. Traditional lead acid batteries cannot handle many thousands of restarts of a car or truck and they would be dead within six months if used as a single battery in a micro hybrid. Automakers are equipping cars with two batteries for this purpose and also they are thinking of improved high tech lead acid batteries for the second battery. The improved technology is either a glass mat or some carbon based high surface material for the electrode. This will only add a couple hundred dollars to the cost of the vehicle and by my estimate the vehicles gas mileage for city driving will improve by about 1 mile per gallon for a compact car and perhaps 1.5 mpg for a larger car or truck. The technology is easier to implement in Europe than the USA as most vehicles in the USA have automatic transmissions and the restart of an engine that has an automatic transmission that is engaged in the D (drive) mode is jumpy. Manual transmission cars typically have their clutch engaged when stopped and the restart of the engine is simple and smooth. The Green Machine estimates that some 10 million cars a year will be equipped with this micro hybrid technology starting in the 2013 model year.

The Green Machine estimates that zero Tesla Model S vehicles will be sold in the 2015 model year as Tesla will be dead as dry cell by then. The VCs that funded Tesla have made out like bandits. The boys at Draper Fisher Juvertson sold a bunch of their stock at over $30 per share in late December. This was just after Tesla had a press release that their Model S release schedule is not slipping and they will be on time for the launch. I blogged at that time that the press release did not tell us anything about costs being lowered and that the company will yield a profit by the timely sale of the sedan. Someone must be reading my blogs as Tesla’s stock slumped this week to $23.00. Last week I opined that within a year the Tesla stock will be below the 19 gallons of gasoline they claim are in a barrel. Perhaps I should have said after their next quarterly report the stock will be below the $19.00 a share level.

Talking about taking investors to the cleaners my other villain AONE has lost their CFO. He made about a million dollars selling his shares during 2010 while the stock was high. After 7 years with the company he is leaving to join a LED company. Yeah he saw the light after he made some bucks in the lithium ion business. When will the public wake up and see that the VCs and CFOs of these soon to be dead lithium ion technology based companies have taken them for a ride? Perhaps Obama and Chu will ride off into the sunset in 2014 when the hundreds of billions of dollars of government grants for gangrene technology are all gone and a few thousand low paying green jobs were created. I think Exide, Insterstate and Die Hard will succeed and still be charged in 2015. Their lead acid batteries will be installed in 10 million micro hybrids.

To be fair and balanced the Republicans are also cleaning up on the clean energy boondoggle. Hank the take us to the tank Paulson who let us slide into deep recession and his team at Coda will soon be importing their battery car from China. They hired an ex GM guy as CEO. My prognostication is the Codas will all be painted blue and we will soon use Coda Blue as the hospital code for calling AAA to resuscitate cars with dead batteries that have a flat voltage line at zero.

Teslacle the Gonadwhere Company

Sorry Green Machine readers I have made a new year’s resolution to blog only every fortnight as I am far too depressed after I blog. I know the thermodynamic thieves in government and industry simply won’t change their ways. The latest from Teslacle is that they have saved the world over 22,000 barrels of oil by having sold over 1,500 Teslacles in the past three years since the introduction of the gonadwhere roadster. Their press release is at the end of the blog.

Of course I contacted Teslacle to tell them that their math is wrong. There are 42 gallons in a barrel and 415,000 gallons is only 9,888 barrels not 22,000. They had the chutzpah to reply to my email that there are only 19 gallons of gasoline extracted from a barrel of oil. The remaining 23 become things other than gasoline when refined. Wow this reminds me of my “banter with Blair” a year ago and how I had to help Blair understand that oil yields diesel, jet fuel, residual oil, propane, and other oils and in fact as the crude oil is denser than many of the refined products there is a gallon gain of 5% in the refining process. The best method to evaluate the conversion of crude oil to gasoline is to compare the heat content of a barrel of crude oil with a gallon of gasoline and also account for the energy lost in the refining process. The US DOE uses 5.8 million BTUs higher heating value in a barrel of oil. Gasoline has 130,000 BTUs per gallon HHV. This means there are 44.615 equivalent gallons of gasoline in a barrel of oil prior to accounting for the refining loss. The refining loss is about 5% so we have 42.4 gallons equivalent of gasoline in a barrel of crude oil. If Teslacle were to be thermodynamically truthful, they could have claimed a savings of 9,788 barrels of oil.

It took the Gonadwhere company 3 years to achieve 1,500 vehicles of total sales and they have lost (retained earnings) over $300 million. This is a cost of $200,000 per vehicle sold or $30,653 per barrel of oil saved. The Pres and his Energy Secretary Dr. Chu Chu Train should take note of Telacles accomplishments.

My parting shot to person at Tesla who emailed me is that I predict in less than 12 months their stock will trade for less than their invented number of gallons of gasoline in a barrel and that within 24 months they will join Studebaker, Oldsmobile and Pontiac as a forgotten brand. Here is their press release from January 10 2010:



PALO ALTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Tesla Motors has delivered more than 1,500 Roadsters worldwide, a significant milestone as the automaker’s momentum builds in North America, Europe and Asia.
The fleet of Roadsters spans more than 30 countries. They have accumulated more than 8.5 million miles (14 million kms) in real-world driving, saving 415,000 gallons (1.6 million liters) of gasoline and more than 22,000 barrels of oil.
“The Roadster has earned global appeal. Our latest delivery milestone proves the Tesla is raising the bar for EVs,” said Tesla co-founder and CEO Elon Musk. “The Roadster’s advanced electric powertrain is the foundation of Tesla’s success.”
The milestone comes after a banner year for Tesla, which acquired an assembly plant in Fremont, Calif., and forged strategic partnerships with Toyota and Panasonic. Tesla also became a public company in 2010.
Tesla also launched the next-generation Roadster 2.5, demonstrating Tesla’s continuous innovation and close feedback loop with its engineers and customers. Tesla opened its first Asian store in October; the showroom in Tokyo’s Aoyama district has the highest foot traffic of any Tesla store worldwide.
In 2010, Tesla delivered cars in more than 30 countries – from Singapore to Switzerland. The most northerly Roadsters are in Narvik, Norway, 140 miles (220 kilometers) north of the Arctic Circle.

LED = Leveen Enlightened Democrats

Lots of news out of Asia that LEDs are gaining market share in the lighting world. I had tried but in vain to enlighten my Congresswoman who is a dyed in the Woolsey democrat. I tried to tell her that the energy policy of Chu Chu Train was headed toward a siding that joins the bridge to nowhere. I wrote her an email this past month saying that had she listened to the Green Machine she may have left a legacy of energy policy that was blazoned in bright white light but alas her legacy is now that of a black hole where no light escapes. Had she listened to the Green Machine she would have been a LED or a Leveen Enlightened Democrat.

LEDs the real ones not the Leveen Enlightened Democrats are amazing devices that emit light with much less energy. Here are two article from a Taiwanese Microelectronics Trade Magazine called Digitimes. Note a lm is a lumen and a 60 watt incandescent bulb emits about 890 lumens. Therefore at $1 per 500 lumens a LED with the same lighting intensity of a 60 watt incandescent bulb will cost $1.80 to produce. A high first cost but the LED will not burn out within 100,000 hours.


Lighting-grade LED chip costs to fall to US$1/500lm in 2-3 years, says Epistar executive

Siu Han, Taipei; Willie Teng, DIGITIMES [Thursday 16 December 2010]


Production cost of lighting-grade LED chips will fall to US$1/500lm in the next 2-3 years, and if that is the case, LED lighting's market penetration will reach 20-30% in 2012 according MJ Jou, president of Taiwan-based LED chip maker Epistar.

At the recent Beijing-Taiwan Science and Technology Forum held in Taichung, Taiwan, Jou said that 40W LED light bulbs are currently US$20-30 and 60W light bulbs are US$40. Judging by market conditions, there is a good chance that the LED sector could beat the target of US$1/500lm in 2015 set by the US' Department of Energy, Jou noted.

At the moment, lighting-grade LED chip costs have reached US$1/200lm at the lowest, and could become the average in 2011.

In the past, manufacturers added red phosphor powder to warm white LEDs, which reduced luminance by 30-40%, Jou said. Epistar's red LED chip has improved from 165lm/W to a laboratory-achieved 180lm/W in December.

According to Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) data, Taiwan's LED lighting production totaled NT$93.6 billion (US$3.1 billion) in 2009 and will rise to NT$16.77 billion in 2010. LED chips and modules will account for 64%, backlight applications 31% and lighting applications 5%. Taiwan has about 50 LED chip makers, 60 chip packagers and 100 end-use application companies, ITRI noted


TSMC aims to become top-5 LED player worldwide
Siu Han, Taipei; Yvonne Yu, DIGITIMES [Wednesday 15 December 2010]


With its LED lighting R&D center to be finished soon, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hopes to become a top-five LED player worldwide in the future.

TSMC noted that with the LED lighting market taking off, the lineup of current global top-five LED players is expected to change. In addition to players from Japan and Korea, there will be one more player from Asia in the new top-five.

Current top-five LED players are Royal Philips Electronics, Osram, Cree, Nichia and Toyoda Gosei.

TSMC's LED R&D center will be completed at the end of 2010 and start mass production in the first half of 2011. Unlike other LED players using sapphire substrate for production, TSMC will use silicon and will focus on the cost advantages of mass production scales, producing own-brand LED light sources and light engine products and produce LED lighting products through a vertical integrated system.

TSMC noted that although most players expect demand for LCD TV backlighting to increase significantly in 2011, LED-backlit TV market share is expected to be lower than in 2010 due to high prices. Unless LED-backlit TV prices drop significantly, LED-backlit TV market share will not be able to reach 40% as expected.

Demand for LCD TV backlighting brings new hope for the LED industry and is causing players to actively expand their MOCVD sets, overall MOCVD sets in China are expected to reach 300, and 100 sets in Taiwan. However, players did not expect the usage of LEDs in TV backlighting to be reduced through design, resulting in reductions in LED chips while LED-backlit TV shipments continue to increase. Korea-based TV vendors' strategy for LED-backlit TVs is expected to affect the schedule for LED lighting to take off. Once LED capacity exceeds demand, players will become more active to generate growth in the LED lighting market.

All the Leaves are Brown and the Sky is Grey, the EPA is Dreaming and we are Going to Pay

All the Leaves are Brown and the Sky is Grey, the EPA is Dreaming and we are Going to Pay

More fake science from the company that brought us the Le Car. They made the claim the Leaf will get 100 miles on a charge now the US EPA has measured the real distance the Leaf can travel at only 73 miles on a full charge. The batteries in the Relief only have 24 kilowatts of stored energy. The 73 mile range translates into a unit energy consumption of 328.8 watt hours per mile. This is what I had estimated a year ago and I had blogged that the 100 mile range was a figment of the French imagination just like a victorious army. Now the zinger the idiots at the US EPA will allow the Frogs to place a sticker on the overpriced heap of junk that the voiture d’electric gets 99 miles per gallon.

Here is the news release from AP.

Nissan Leaf runs equivalent of 99 miles per gallon
By KEN THOMAS, Associated Press – Mon Nov 22, 5:13 pm ET
WASHINGTON – The Nissan Leaf, an electric car aimed at attracting environmentally conscious motorists, will get the equivalent of 99 miles per gallon in combined city and highway driving, based on government testing.
Nissan Motor Corp. said Monday the Environmental Protection Agency's fuel efficiency window sticker, which provides information about the car's energy use, would estimate the electric car will achieve the equivalent of 106 mpg in city driving and 92 mpg on the highway.
EPA's tests estimate the Leaf can travel 73 miles on a fully charged battery and will cost $561 a year in electricity. Nissan has said the Leaf can travel 100 miles on a full charge, based on tests used by California regulators.
Nissan and General Motors Co. are both releasing electric cars within weeks in the auto industry's most prominent attempt at mass-producing vehicles that shift away from petroleum. The Leaf does not have a gas engine and must be recharged once its battery is depleted.
The tests show equivalent fuel efficiency of nearly twice the Toyota Prius, which gets 50 mpg in combined driving.
GM's entry, the Chevrolet Volt, uses an electric battery for the first 25 to 50 miles and a small gasoline engine to generate electricity once the battery runs down. The gasoline engine can generate power to run the car another 300 miles. GM has not yet revealed the mileage rating for the Volt.
Mark Perry, Nissan North America's director of product planning and strategy, said the vehicle's range would vary based on driving conditions. Tests conducted by the Federal Trade Commission, which regulates advertising claims, had estimated a range of 96 to 110 miles per full charge and the company's internal tests had found a broader range of 64 to 138 miles, Perry said. The California Air Resources Board estimated a range of 100 miles.
"As we've said all along, your range varies on driving conditions, temperature, terrain and we've talked about, very openly, this idea of a range of ranges," Perry said in an interview. The Leaf's label will indicate the vehicle is the best in class in fuel efficiency and tailpipe emissions.
Nissan will start selling the Leaf in California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona and Tennessee in December with a sticker price of $32,780. The Leaf will go on sale in other markets through 2011 and be available nationwide by the end of next year.
The Volt will have a sticker price of $41,000 and GM will sell it first in California, then make it available in New York; New Jersey; Connecticut; Washington, D.C.; Michigan and Texas. The car will be sold nationwide in 12 to 18 months.
Both vehicles qualify for a $7,500 federal tax credit. Some states and communities are offering additional tax breaks that will lower the price further.
GM spokesman Greg Martin said the automaker was working with EPA and expected to announce details of the Volt's mileage estimates soon.
EPA calculated the Leaf's fuel economy based on a formula that says 33.7 kilowatts per hour holds the energy equivalent of one gallon of gasoline. The label estimates a charging time of 7 hours on a 240-volt charge. Cost estimates were based on 15,000 miles per year at 12 cents per kilowatt-hour.

OK so the US EPA says a gallon of gasoline holds 33.7 kilowatt hours and the Leaf needed 24 kilowatt hours to travel 73 miles. The idiots at EPA then do the math of 33.7 times 73 divide 24 and viola ce sa they get 102.5 mpg. Now my thermodynamic friends how did the EPA pull of this slight of hand. Well of course a gallon of gas has 115,000 BTU which equals 33.7 kilowatt hours at a rate of 3,412 BTU/kwh. But first to get 24 kwh of direct current energy into the battery one needs 26.67 kwh of alternating current energy from the grid. But the electrical energy was not generated with 100% efficiency from a fossil fuel. The US DOE reports that the average kwh of electricity generated by natural gas over the past 12 months to the grid required 7,234 BTUs. Therefore if one applies the 10% loss for AC transmission and distribution and converting from AC to DC plus the energy lost in electric power generation one gets the real equivalent fuel efficiency of 43.5 MPG. Of course this is better than Arne’s Bummer but the 99 MPG is pure fantasy of pathological liars at the EPA who believe that the President of the Ignited States can mandate out any real thermodynamics and wish that the French will save America. France is a minor economic power and the Leaf is a minor automotive power that is not as efficient as the Prius, The Leaf cost 50% more than a Prius and will last on the market about as long as a Dauphine or a La Car.

I also see that Alaric Galoric has now admitted to corn ethanol as a failure. More on that in my next blog. I bet old Alaric was the one who provided the EPA in conveniently untrue formula for MPG calculations of the E vehicles as of course EPA stands for Electricity Produced by Alaric.

Is the Volt a call to revolt?

The Green Machine is livid. This is total nonsense that the Chevrolet Volt gets 230 miles to the gallon. Again the folks who flunked thermodynamics are making bogus claims. Both GM and Raser dropped out of engineering school. The 230 mpg Volt is as fake as the 100 mpg Raser. Each company makes their claims based on an infinitely efficient and free electricity grid. Even with the small engines that have been fitted to the Raser or the Volt their mileage is far less than their claims. The Volt gets about the same mileage as a Prius at about 50 mpg. The volt being capable of forty miles of travel on its battery pack, has a far larger and hence far more expensive battery pack than the Prius.

The Green Machine will answer whether this added expenses of a far larger battery pack does anything for the planet or is it pure hype brought to you by the federal government that is now the largest shareholder in Congressional Motors sorry I meant to say general Motors. The US EPA has this bogus calculation for equivalent MPG for plug in hybrids like the Volt and the Raser Hummer. This bogus calculation does not assign either energy value or carbon footprint to the electricity that is used in the plug in to recharge the plug in’s large battery pack. At least Tesla is honest about its requirements for plug in power. The Tesla site states the Tesla will need 0.28 kilowatt hours from the grid for each mile it will travel. The Volt is a heavier vehicle, and also less aerodynamic than the Tesla so the Green Machine estimates the Volt will require 25% more energy to travel a mile. The Volt will therefore require 0.38 kilowatt hours of electrical energy to move a mile. The most efficient fossil fuel fired method to generate electricity is by combined cycle generation with natural gas. Without boring you all with the mathematical details the Volt will need approximately 0.0225 gallons of gas equivalent to travel the mile. The Prius with an EPA rating of 50 mpg only needs 0.02 gallons of gas to do the job of moving a mile. So the Prius is indeed 10% more efficient than the Volt.

On a truthful basis the Volt gets approximately 45 mpg when the natural gas that is needed to generate the electricity is accounted for. If the average efficiency of the electric grid is used the Volt gets no more than 30 mpg. Maybe the Congress and GM’s CEO had a typo in their press release and meant to claim 30 MPG not 230 MPG?
Since the EPA is for the entire US we should use the average CO2 emissions to generate a kilowatt of electricity over the entire US when calculating the Volt’s carbon footprint. This average amount of CO2 is 1.3 pounds per kilowatt hour. Therefore to move a mile the Volt will emit 0.494 pounds of CO2 per mile. The Prius will emit 0.4 pounds of CO2 to travel a mile when powered by gasoline. The Volt has 25% more CO2 emissions and is ten percent less energy efficient than the Prius. It is time for Congress to enact legislation that the EPA must use, that is based on thermodynamics rather than fantasy. This is no time for a tea party it is time that we Revolt against the Volt. Congressional Motors is a better sounding name then General Motors so instead of wasting the extra $15,000 to buy a General Motors Volt ES 230 MPG, we should all buy the Prius. After the Volt flops they will rename this car the Congressional Motors Revolt BS 45 MPG.

Can a turbine replace an internal combustion engine?

Today the blog is about Gallstones and Capstones. I know keystones are critical to the support of an arch but what is a capstone. Well in the world of thermodynamics, Capstone is the manufacturer of a microturbine that can produce 30 kilowatts or about 40 horsepower of power. A turbine is a jet engine rather than a piston engine and Capstone has miniaturized the jet engine to be small enough to fit in the hood of a car. They have been at this for about twelve years and blown through almost a billion dollars of investors’ money. The inventor is the brother of the founder of Compaq computers and Paul Allen of Microsoft fame has been a backer.

While the technology is elegant and sweet, the cost of fabricating a microturbine is very high. The 40 horsepower engine from Capstone that has one third the power of a Toyota Corolla, costs them more than $20,000 to manufacture. By comparison the 60 horsepower engine in a Smart Car costs Mercedes less than $2,500 to manufacture. Is the microturbine much more efficient than a piston engine? Over the full driving range that a motorist typically runs their vehicle the, microturbine will approach 30% efficiency while the piston engine will be about 15% efficient. However, when one employs a diesel engine to do the same driving, the diesel engine yields approximately the same efficiency as the Capstone turbine. The diesel engine would only cost about $3,000 to manufacture.

For the past couple of weeks I have been blogging about Raser the Eraser and today it is about Capstone the Gallstone. Capstone also wanted to lift their stock price by getting in on the plug in hybrid bandwagon. CPST is Capstone’s stock symbol and it is a small cap stock on the NASDAQ. It was once a large cap stock during the dot com boom years but it saw a low of 39 cents a share a few months back. Last week some thermodynamic wankers in the UK, fitted a plug in van with a Capstone turbine and are claiming 80 mpg for the van. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Photo-Release-Capstone-C30-pz-15498531.html?.v=1 . On this news the CPST stock rose to close at one dollar sixteen cents yesterday.

Again the claim of the first forty miles being energy free due to the plug in lithium ion batteries propelling the vehicle without the need for engaging the engine is being made. If Raser is an Eraser then the Capstone plug in is a Gallstone. In Capstone’s case one has to add the extra cost of the turbine versus the standard piston engine and this is amounts to another $20,000 on top of the lithium ion batteries that already added more than $30,000 to the base cost of the vehicle. Therefore the Capstone Gallstone will cost you $50,000 more than the base diesel van and get no better fuel economy. I hear gallstones are very painful, the extra fifty thousand dollars per vehicle is also painful to your wallet.

Gall is a synonym for nerve or chutzpah. I really get my hairs up on my back when these gangrene gallists who have jumped on the band wagon to save the world by lowering energy consumption make ridiculous claims about their technologies that are Betamaxs and some fool then buys the stock on the hope this is the next Apple Computer. I suggest that folks rather buy shares in my new engine company Gallstone Turbine Corporation that uses rubber bands to propel a lead acid plug in. I will list Gallstone Turbine Corporation on the NYSE with the symbol GTC which also stands for Get Their Cash.

On Wednesday June 17, Lindsay Leveen will be on blog talk radio at noon California time to discuss Eraser and Gallstone. 12pm PT (3pm ET) at http://BlogTalkRadio.com/AlternativeEnergyRadio The call in number for the radio show is (347) 838-8999.

Can a Hummer really get 100 mpg?

Today I have a very interesting blog for the readers. This company called Raser Technologies is hereby awarded this quarter's Gangrene Award for their pretence to be green. These guys claim to have developed a Hummer that gets 100 mpg. Ordinarily one would laugh at them but they got the Governator excited and he loved their Hummer by exclaiming at the Society of Automotive Engineers Forum on April 20 that the "solution is not changing the size of the cars we drive but in changing the technology that drives the car." What a dumb statement from a bankrupt governor who got a F in thermodynamics. Raser Technology then took their monstrosity to Wall Street and rang the opening bell for the NYSE on May 1. Their chairman appeared on Squawk On The Street and tried to convince Erin Burnett that this oversized piece of junk gets 100 mpg.

Their audacity does not end there, on May 19th these gangrene green folks paraded their contraption on Capitol Hill and had Senator Hatch drive the thing around the Capitol.

100 mpg my elbow!! The piece of junk at best gets 33mpg and cost $40,000 more than a standard bummer. Together with Tad Patzek the Chairman of the Department of Petroleum Engineering at University Texas I helped alternativeenergy dot com www.alternativeenergy.com bust these green imposters. David Kates writing for alternative energy dot com broke the story that the 100 mpg was a slight of hand. You must read his article by going to http://alternativeenergy.com/profiles/blogs/a-100-mpg-hummer-really

Doug Schiller of alternative energy dot com also was interviewed on MSNBC who broke the news that the 100 mpg was a myth. Go to http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30845961/ for the MSNBC article on 100 mpg more or less

Why is Raser hyping thing this. Well Raser Technologies (RZ NYSE) is a small cap stock and they are for all intents and purposes insolvent. They reported their first quarter earning recently and their balance sheet makes Chrysler look triple A. Their working capital is negative to the tune of $60 million and their net equity is negative by over $20 million. The 100 mpg Hummer is being used as a last ditch effort to inflate their stock. I had blogged in March 2008 that Raser was a hype stock when they were trading at $13.82 http://www.greenenergyexplained.com/2008/01/geothermal-stocks.html

Raser is now trading around $4.00 even with the hype of the 100 mpg Hummer. I was correct in renaming Raser to Eraser as they are a wipe out. Remember my motto that is a misquote of Warren Buffet "be green when all are fearful and be fearful when all are green". No doubt you must be very fearful when folks are gangrene.